A look to the week ahead

By Matthew Boyle

Last week saw the biggest loss for the pound since September of last year- losing around 2% against the single currency.

Concerns over the viability of the Astra Zeneca vaccine combined with rumors of the ECB tapering quantitative easing were the main cause, add some profit taking in the market given the Pounds stellar gains made so far this year.

As shops and pubs in the U.K. open again today the market remains fairly bullish regarding the Pound with GBP longs currently leading the speculative FX market.

With the economic wheels in the UK turning again it is likely we will see some GBP strength. And despite widespread concerns with the Astra Zeneca vaccine, the UKs programme continues to outpace Europe and lead the way so it is likely we will see momentum gain and buying rates improve.

However as we know in the Fx markets – nothing is certain or guaranteed.

As we have seen before as the shackles of lockdown have been lifted and the gates have opened people have gone wild – parks and pubs are packed and consequently cases have risen and lockdown has been reintroduced.

And let us not forgot of course of the ever lurking dangers of a new strain being introduced or a mutation.

Of course we pray this is not the case but should this happen and lockdown be reinstated the economy would come to a halt again and the effect on exchange rates would be rapid with the current opportunity lost.

So should you have any upcoming requirements speak to your broker today for some friendly guidance on how to reduce the risk of your upcoming transaction.

Data This Week


09.00     EUR        Retail Sales

13.00     GBP       BoE Tenreyro speech

18.00     USD        Monthly Budget Statement

23.01     GBP       BRC retail sales


N/A        CNY        Trade balance, Imports and Exports

06.00     GBP       GDP, manufacturing and industrial production figures.

09.00     EUR        German ZEW survey

12.30     USD       Inflation data


01.00     NZD       RBNZ Rate statement and Interest rate decision

09.00     EUR        Industrial Production

18.00     USD        Fed Beige Book and Feds Williams Speech


01.00     AUD       Employment Change and Unemployment Rate

06.00     EUR        German Harmonized index of consumer prices

12.30     USD        Retails sales and Jobless claims


00.00     EUR        Eurogroup Meeting

02.00     CNY        GDP and retail sales

09.00     EUR        Inflation data

14.00     USD        Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index