By Tom Arnold
With UK markets shut for almost half of last week it is back to a busy week on the currency markets this week following the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations.
Following a weekend of speculation, it was confirmed this morning, in a press conference by Graham Brady the chairman of the 1922 Committee, that the threshold for letters of no confidence in the PM had been reached and as such an official vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson will happen today. Should he lose the vote the process to replace him will begin and the UK will be looking for a new Prime Minister with all the uncertainty that brings to the market. Uncertainty is one of the most damaging things for any currency and so a protracted leadership race could be bad for Sterling.
In other news, the week ahead is fairly busy with important data releases out across the major zones. Most notably the EU release their GDP figure on Wednesday and their monthly policy statement with interest rate decision on Thursday. The ECB’s stance has changed recently, with expectations that interest rate rises will start as soon as this week, which will almost certainly lead to a stronger Euro, after months of the Euro losing out to both the Pound and the Dollar as their respective central banks raised rates.
Monday
UK Retail Sales
Tuesday
Australian Interest Rate Decision + Policy Statement
US Trade Balance
Wednesday
UK House Price Data
EU Gross Domestic Product
Thursday
EU Interest Rate Decision + Policy Statement
US Jobless Claims
Friday
US CPI Inflation
As ever please stay in close contact with your currency consultant, so that we can help you to decide upon the most appropriate strategy for your currency requirements.