By Grace Smyth
This past week GBP/EUR have been trading within a tight range with little movement either side. Likely this is a result of both economies continuing to outperform recent market expectations and therefore making it difficult for either side to gain any real advantage over the other. Over the course of the year so far GBP/EUR has gained in each month, albeit the gains made have always been modest and followed naturally by a small dip, but the moves have provided some positive situations for those looking to buy their dream place in the sun. The question is, are these trading patterns likely to continue? As ever the currency markets remain volatile and not easy to predict.
The USD seemed to be last week’s loser as the Federal Reserve hinted the US economy could fall into a ‘mild’ recession this year. Another hit to the Dollar following the pitfalls it has recently experienced with its failing banks SVB and Credit Suisse back in March. The Fed has made predictions that they will see just a 0.4% growth in the economy for 2023, a stark difference to its previous predictions of 0.22% in the first quarter. The announcement settled the markets and prompted a strong reaction and poor investor confidence and as a result the Dollar began to trail off, providing some great opportunities for those looking to buy Dollars.
Looking forward, we can likely expect the rates to continue in this tight range-bound trading. Today is very quiet on the data front with little out apart from a speech from ECB’s president Lagarde. The next point of interest being posted on Tuesday as the UK release jobs and wage data, followed by CPI inflation data on Wednesday. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to raise interest rates again in May, meaning both sides will again be fighting to gain any concrete advantage, and a positive inflation figure here could solidify the Bank’s decision to hike interest rates once again. Should we see any surprises on the upside in these data releases, there could be a chance for Sterling to gain back some of its recent losses against the euro and test the highs we saw over the past few weeks. However, if the data is weaker than expected, it could lead to further sterling weakness. Retail Sales on Friday is also worth noting if you have an upcoming currency requirement.
The week ahead
Monday
17:00 EUR ECB’s president Lagarde speech
Tuesday
06:00 GBP Average Earnings, Claimant Count & Unemployment Rate
12:30 CAD Consumer Price Index
15:30 CAD BoC’s Roger Speech
Wednesday
06:00 GBP Consumer Price Index, PPI Core Output, Retail Price Index
07:00 EUR Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting
09:00 EUR Core Harmonized index of Consumer Prices
Thursday
11:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30 USD Jobless Claims
14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
Friday
06:00 GBP Retail Sales
08:00 EUR S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI, Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI
08:30 GBP S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI, Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI
12:30 CAD Retail Sales
As ever, if you have an upcoming currency requirement and unsure of what your next move should be, get in touch with us today and speak to one of our friendly currency consultants. We would be happy to talk you through the various options we provide to help you lock in your exchange in a way that best suits you.