By Kian Songra
Yesterday the Pound Sterling strengthened against its major peers as markets anticipated the UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement, the first Budget by a Labour government in over 15 years. All eyes turn to today when the Chancellor for the UK, Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax increases and heightened public spending, following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s commitment to “rebuild public services.” Reeves has emphasised the need for fiscal spending, highlighting the NHS needs investment to counter years of underfunding.
Investors will closely watch the Budget’s impact on the Bank of England’s policy. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7th, following a recent pause at 5%. When interest rates are cut, foreign direct investors are less attracted to investing in that economy, resulting in turning their heads to where the pastures are greener, resulting in a drop in strength for the currency. This release will be critical, with the last resulting in a 2-cent decrease. Putting this into monetary value on a £100,000 exchange, you are £2,000 worse off. With this in mind, as well as the Budget possibly leaving a souring taste for foreign investors, the Pound could be in for a double blow in upcoming weeks.
The Euro could see a boost today with the release of preliminary October inflation data for Spain and Germany. September’s inflation data for these two countries led to a Euro drop and a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut. Markets expect inflation to rise slightly by year-end, potentially supporting the Euro. However, any gains would likely be modest. If inflation undershoots, it could increase pressure on the ECB to cut rates sooner, further weighing on the Euro. Eurozone-wide inflation data follows the next day, usually guided by German and Spanish figures.
The remainder of the week sees critical data releases across the pond in the US. Market participants will closely monitor the initial Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data to assess current economic growth and inflation trends. US Non-farm payrolls are a highlight in these data releases, as it measures the number of those in paid employment. This monthly release usually causes increased volatility in the market, due to the reading indicating the health of the US economy, altering investors’ sentiment towards the dollar.
If the data to be published later this week show signs of robust economic expansion and upbeat labour demand, bets that the Fed will cut interest rates sharply will diminish. On the contrary, Fed rate cut bets would strengthen if the data points to slower growth and a weak job market.
This week’s data releases, and fiscal updates are key, particularly from the UK budget and US inflation data. Market participants will be watching closely to see if the UK budget signals new economic directions, if the Eurozone shows signs of stabilisation, and if the US economy continues to defy slowdowns. Each currency’s movement is deeply intertwined with these upcoming releases, setting the stage for potential shifts across the FX market.
With the week set to potentially pave the new trajectory in the FX markets, it will be important to look at the various contract options we offer to take advantage of the rates whilst we are in favourable conditions. Stay in close contact with our friendly team, who can help assess your options to minimise risk ahead of your future currency requirements.
Remaining data this week:
Wednesday:
– UK Budget
– German GDP
– German Inflation
– Eurozone GDP
– USD GDP
– Australian Inflation data
Thursday:
– German Retail sales
– Eurozone inflation and unemployment
– US CPI
– Japan’s Interest rate decision
Friday:
– US Non-Farm Payrolls
– US ISM Manufacturing data