By Simon Eastman
As the month draws to a close we are seeing less liquidity in the markets, as positions are closed off, giving way to some more volatile swings in the rates, with less economic data released.
Tuesday saw much of the same, with the pound moving lower from overnight trading against both euro and dollar as Europe opened, but with a lack of much key data, we saw fairly stable rates over the course of the day. As the European trade came to an end, we saw the pound begin a rally, given a boost by yet further news of a drop in daily Covid cases. It’s the 7th day in a row that cases have fallen, in comparison to initial concerns that we’d be seeing over 100,000 cases a day as we headed out of so called Freedom Day last Monday.
Last week, the pound dropped from the previous weeks multi month highs, as infection rates continued to rise, but stabilised once again as the week closed and this week started. The highs were brief, so the increase yesterday must be viewed with caution as we could well see the improvement as short lived. Especially with the month coming to a close, and the key Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy statement tonight, which traders await with interest. US data can have an effect on both GBP and EUR rates so it might be prudent to speak to one of the team today, to take advantage of this current rally, in case that changes this evening.
Apart from the Federal Reserve meeting tonight, we just have German consumer confidence survey results this morning. Any CAD buyers or sellers out there should note inflation results after lunch today, with the Fed interest rate decision and policy statement at 19.00 followed by the press conference at 19.30. The Bank of England hold their next policy meeting next week, so once the Fed is out the way, traders may be second guessing what the BoE might do bringing with it further volatility.