By Matthew Vassallo
All eyes will be on tonight’s live debate between the two remaining candidates, left fighting it out to become the newly appointed leader of the Conservative party.
Rishi Sunak & Lizz Truss may not have the same charismatic, marmite type bravado of their predecessor but they retain similarities in terms of them both being polarised figures amongst their own party and beyond.
Both will have the unenviable task of trying to first bring together and harmonise a Tory party which has been fractured and severely weakened by months of tumultuous scandals, and then try to galvanise the same group towards a general election in 2024, all whilst keeping public opinion onside without having their own tried and tested electoral mandate as a relative safety net.
As you may expect this political uncertainty has severely impacted investors’ risk appetite for the Pound, which has seen its value deteriorate over recent months in line with the scandals and subsequent upheaval in Number 10.
The winner to become de facto PM will have to try and juggle their own party’s wishes, whilst trying to go about ensuring the UK’s current economic stagnation receives the necessary tools to move it away from near double digit inflation figures and a cost-of-living crisis not seen since the dark days of the 1970s. Back then a certain Margaret Thatcher (one of if not the most polarised political leader of a generation) looked towards privatisation and a cut in public spending to stave off in her own words “the inevitable recession”.
With two different visions of how they might do this but perhaps far less support amongst the stauncher ‘decision makers’ inside the inner Tory MP circles, it may be that Labour leader Kier Starmer is in fact the de facto PM in waiting and only need sit back and watch as the walls of Jericho tumble from within.
Economic Data Releases for the Week Ahead
US Consumer Confidence figures for July
US Trade Balance figures
US Fed Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Statement
US GDP figures
Initial Jobless Claims
Eurozone GDP figures
UK Consumer Credit for June