Will Covid leave GBP in the Cold?

By Matthew Boyle

This week is particularly quiet in the way of data, particularly from the UK. As such we can expect sentiment to continue to drive market rates as it has done for some time now.

GBP rates have been slowly dwindling over the last couple of weeks with little positive economic data to allow it to push off.

Worryingly it also seems that market sentiment is beginning to become far from positive for the Pound.

As the weather has started to change and cold begins to return to the UK it seems feelings towards GBP may be similar. The excitement over the effectiveness of the UK’s vaccination programme has declined massively as Europe’s numbers have caught up, together with UK cases on the rise again. Concerns of the incoming cold weather front combined with UK schools starting again and so many mixing have left many concerned that we may be seeing the start of a spike and subsequent decline in the UK’s fortunes.

RBC Capital Markets forecast we will see sizable declines before the end of the year and that these will stretch out into next year.

It is certainly concerning with restrictions eased, so many mixing now schools are back and as the cold weather sets-in – and this is being reflected in the markets. Whilst we don’t know what will happen in the coming months, we do know that currently rates are around a cent or so off the best they have been in 18 months.

So, if you are concerned and don’t want to take a risk, speak to your broker today for some guidance on how to remove the risk from your transfer.


0700       EUR        Eurofin Meeting

23.01     GBP        like for like Retail sales


04.30     AUD       RBA interest rate Decision & Interest Rate Decision

09.00     EUR        GDP & Employment Data

23.50     JPY         GDP


14.00     CAD       BoC Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision

18.00     USD        FED’s Beige Book


11.45     EUR        ECB Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Statement

12.30     EUR        ECB Press Conference


06.00     EUR        German CPI data

12.30     CAD       Unemployment Data