By Matthew Boyle
This week could be a critical week for GBP>EUR rates. With central bank intervention being one of the driving factors in rates currently, throughout the week we have several speeches by various members of the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (FED), all of which provide insight into what might be the policy moving forward and what to expect.
Wednesday looks critical as we have UK inflation in the morning followed by speeches from members of all three. With inflation at 9% and directly linked to the BoE’s policy regarding interest rate levels, this reading will help determine the ongoing path the Bank might take – if it rises again, we can expect the bank to continue with an aggressive approach. Should it drop, it would suggest the bank will pull back or at least pause with any further action, at least in the short-term. With exchange rates so strongly linked to interest rate performance this is certainly one to watch closely for anyone with a GBP/EUR interest.
Thursday sees the GBP/EUR head-2-head continue as both release PMI data which shows how well private sector manufacturing and services companies are performing. Later that day we also have bank stress info from the US – interesting to see how the FED given its safe-haven status is holding up following their aggressive interest rate hikes against the backdrop of Global uncertainty.
If you have any upcoming transfers speak to A Place in the Sun Currency today for some guidance on how you might take out the risk of rates moving against you and your costs increasing.
Mon
13.00 EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech
21.00 NZD Westpac Consumer Survey (Q2)
Tue
0.00 AUD RBA Governor Lowes speech
01.30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
07.15 GBP BoE Member Speech
12.30 CAD Retail Sales
Wed
06.00 GBP BoE Inflation Data
07.00 EUR ECB Members speech
08.40 GBP BoE Member Speech
12.30 CAD BoC Inflation data
13.30 USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
Thu
0.00 EUR EU Leaders summit
07.30 EUR German PMI data
08.00 EUR Eurozone PMI data
08.30 GBP UK PMI data
14.00 USD FED Chair Powell testifies
20.30 USD Bank stress test info
Fri
06.30 GBP UK retail sales
08.00 EUR German business climate info
11.30 AUD RBA Governor Lowes Speech
12.30 GBP BoE Member Speech
13.45 GBP BoE Member Speech