By Simon Eastman
Last week saw the pound fare well against its major pairings, making gains or holding ground throughout the week.
GBP/EUR saw the pound push up towards the current resistance ceiling again early in the week, helped by some better than expected PMI readings on Wednesday, although it couldn’t keep up the momentum against the single currency, as we saw the pound end over half a cent down by close of trade on Friday.
Against the broadly weak US dollar, the pound performed well, moving around 2 cent over the week, in sterling’s favour. The UK had little data of note last week, apart from the PMI release, so markets went off the US data and the all important non-farm payrolls figure on Friday. Thursday’s jobs data was mainly positive for the US, but still the pound managed to lead the way, making slight gains and testing resistance ceilings. Come Friday, the average earnings figures beat forecast but the NFP came in woefully under expectations and the pound rallied as a result, testing and breaking fresh resistance levels in the process, reaching levels not seen since March 2022.
The week ended with profits taken against the greenback and the GBP/USD rates falling a cent at their lowest point before rising slightly ahead of the weekend.
This week is a busy one for all major currencies, the key releases highlighted below.
With the Jackson Hole symposium still fresh in people’s minds, despite gaining back some losses last week the USD still remains under selling pressure. Talk of an aggressive 50 basis point cut by the Fed at the upcoming policy meeting next week is likely to keep investors cautious, although the safe haven nature of the dollar has shown to be a strong attraction recently.
The Bank of England also meets next week as investors speculate as to what the Bank may do with UK interest rates. Governor Bailey warned another cut would not be taken lightly and that inflationary pressures are seen as easing in the longer term. Cutting interest rates too much could upset the inflationary apple cart so a cautious stance seems likely, despite speculation we could see a raft of small 10 basis point cuts over the coming months, into next year.
There is plenty of data to sway investor sentiment this week, including the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, so for any currency requirement you might have coming up, be it buying or selling sterling, make sure to speak to one of the team at your earliest opportunity for some friendly guidance.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday – German inflation, UK unemployment, average earnings and claimant count. Speech by BoC Gov Macklem. Overnight, US Presidential election debate.
Wednesday – UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing production. US inflation.
Thursday – ECB interest rate and policy meeting and press conference. BoE monetary report hearing. US producer price index.
Friday – EcoFin and Eurogroup meetings. UK consumer inflation expectations. US Michigan consumer sentiment index.