By Simon Eastman
Last week we saw the pound move very little against its major counterparties, with little data for traders to work off.
The Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment indices were mixed, with expectations showing a slightly positive outlook at 50.7, whilst sentiment came in slightly negative at 49.5. A reading of 50 or above is a positive outcome, whilst below 50 is negative. Coupled with a flat 1-year and a lower than forecast 5-year inflation expectations readings and the dollar did very little against both sterling and the euro.
For those looing to buy euros, with sterling or USD are still enjoying some of the best exchange rates we have seen in months, so worth having a conversation with your broker here to discuss the options available for your upcoming currency purchase. It may be that a forward contract, where you lock in the rate now, purchasing your currency but only need to settle a small part of the cost initially, could be the perfect solution.
As we wind up June and H1 2026, today we have a few EU releases to contend with, including business climate, consumer, and industrial confidence surveys, economic and services sentiment indices plus rounding off the day with ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking at 6pm.
Tuesday closes the month with a raft of data to note. Initially German retail sales and UK GDP are released at 7am. ECB member Vujcic speaks at 8.40am, swiftly followed by German unemployment figures. We then have speeches throughout the day from ECB members Schnabel, Elderson, Cipollone and Lane plus BoE member Breedon. At 1pm German inflation is released, Canadian GDP at 1.30pm and US consumer confidence figures round us off at 3pm.
H2 2026 kicks off on Wednesday with EU inflation, US employment change, and various central bank leader speeches from the EUs President Lagarde speaking twice over the day, plus BoE Governor Bailey, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, and new Fed Chair Warsh. US ISM manufacturing data covering four different aspects is released at 3pm to close off the day.
Thursday is a little less interesting with just US jobs data covering average earnings, unemployment, jobless claims, and the key non-farm payrolls. These reading all come out a day early as the US markets are closed Friday3rd July in respect of Independence Day falling on the Saturday.
Friday finishes off the week quietly, with just speeches from BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde of note.
A busy week with plenty to affect the exchange rates and the cost of your property in the sun, so make sure to contact us to let us help make your money go further.