PMI data and Autumn Statement in focus

By Matthew Boyle

Last week saw GBP>EUR rates sink to a 6 month low, as lower-than-expected UK inflation data increased speculation on the Bank of England cutting interest rates sooner than expected.

This drop-in rates against the single currency is concerning as we have now broken down and outside of a well established range in which GBP/EUR has been performing for many months.

With this floor now, gone downside pressure on the rate will meet little resistance with the next floor of support at around 1% lower than where the rate sits currently.

On Wednesday, the Autumn budget may push GBP strength if Sunak and Hunt are able to do a job at convincing markets of a speedy UK economic recovery. It is likely the budget will be strong, measured and well delivered as the Tories will want to avoid the catastrophe as was seen during Liz Hunt’s leadership.

GBP>USD rates pushed to a month high last week as weaker than expected USD jobs data combined with a low inflation figure have seen the previously soaring Greenback give back some ground. Tuesday’s FOMC minutes and durable goods data on Wednesday are the driving data releases which will likely set the tone for USD rate this week. However, it is production and manufacturing data on Thursday and Friday that will be the market’s main focus as the Pound, Dollar and Euro go head-to-head. In what looks to be a busy end to a quiet week for data, speak to us at A Place in the Sun Currency for the latest updates. With GBP/EUR having broken an established floor of support and GBP/USD on month+ highs, now may be a good time to secure required funds and remove market risk.

Data this week


13.45    GBP        BoE Governor Bailey Speech

23.00    AUD       RBA Governor Bullock Speech


00.30    AUD       RBA Meeting minutes

12.30    CAD       BoC Consumer price index

21.00    USD       FOMC Minutes


08.35    AUD       RBA Governor Bullock speech

09.30    GBP        BoE Monetary policy report Hearings.

12.45    GBP        Autumn forecast statement

13.30    USD        Durable Goods data


08.30    EUR        German PMI data

09.00    EUR        Eurozone PMI data

09.30    GBP        PMI data

12.45    GBP        Autumn forecast statement

1.45       NZD       Retail Sales


00.01    GBP        Consumer confidence

07.00    EUR        German GDP data

14.45    USD        PMI data