By Ashley Finill
Last week saw more disappointment for the pound as it slumped once again against the majors. More poor economic data came from the UK as the economy continues to struggle. On Friday retail sale figures from the UK came out at 0.9% following May’s poor reading of -2.8% but this still undershot expectations and as a result kept unneeded pressure on the struggling pound throughout Friday trading. The improvement from May was down to food sales and said that due to the improved weather in June more people were spending their money. Following the retail sales figure, Sterling lost just over half a cent on both the Euro and USD over the course of the day. Today the UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer meets the US president Donald Trump in Scotland. They are expected to talk about trying to aid a ceasefire deal with Israel in Gaza, they are also set to talk about the transatlantic trade agreement made in May with the hopes of several of the tariffs imposed on the UK to be lowered. Ahead of the talks, the White House said the talks would allow the two nations to refine the “historic” US-UK trade deal.
Trade Agreement Between US & EU
Yesterday afternoon US President Donald Trump announced that the US and the EU had agreed a trade deal after months of negotiations. Trump speaking in Scotland today said it was the “biggest deal ever made” and will be great for cars as well as having a big impact on agriculture. The US will still impose a 15% tariff on most EU good coming into America, but that is half of the 30% that was initially put on the EU a few months ago, when Donald Trump embarked on his trade war against trading countries with the US. Following the agreement being struck late yesterday afternoon the markets reacted, which spelled bad news for the Pound as it again miserably slumped against the Euro, bringing fresh lows against the single currency. GBP/EUR is now at the lowest point seen since November 2023 as investors continue to back away from the pound, as we have seen for most of 2025. This month Sterling has lost over 2% against the Euro, with just under 1% lost last week alone; this just highlights the fragile and weakened state the pound is in and with not much on the horizon to breathe life back into it. Next week the Bank of England meet to announce their decision on interest rates in the UK, there are mixed reports on whether the BoE will cut on Thursday next, but should they feel a cut is necessary then we can expect the Pound to be in further trouble against the majors.
Data this week
It’s quiet week for data in the UK as there are no major releases of note however, there are a raft of data releases taking place this week from across the world that are likely to cause some volatility throughout this week’s trading, albeit no data to take note of on Monday. On Tuesday in the US, Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings data is post in the afternoon from 1pm. On Wednesday, GDP is posted in the EU at 9am. Wednesday afternoon at 12.30pm, the US post ADP Employment Change and GDP. At 1.45pm, Canada will announce their interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 2.75%. At 6pm, the US announce their interest rate decision, they are also expected to hold at 4.5%. On Thursday, at 9am the EU post the unemployment rate. At 12.30pm Canada post GDP, whilst the US post employment data at the same time. Finishing off the week on Friday, at 9am the EU post Harmonised index of consumer prices. In the afternoon, the US post Non-Farm payrolls at 12.30pm, at 1.30pm Canada post S&P PMI and finally finishing off the week the US post ISM Manufacturing PMI.