By Ashley Finill
So far this week the Pound has come under increasing pressure from the Euro, as Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to dictate market sentiment. Since last week, Sterling has lost just under a cent on the single currency and with little data coming from the UK this week the Pound could remain under the cosh for the rest of the week. As for sterling / US Dollar it’s been fairly steady since the start of the week, trading within a half a cent range and rates are more or less where they were this time last week. With regards to Trump’s tariffs, it sounds like they aren’t going away anytime soon. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this week that the US president is not planning to extend the pausing of tariffs and if deals aren’t struck after the 90 day period the tariffs will be reinstated in full, the 90 day pause comes to an end at the start of July, so we can expect further volatility during this time.
US Politics Continue to Dominate Markets
Events over in America is likely to continue to bring volatility to the stock markets and currency market over the coming weeks and months. Donald Trump is due to announce what they are calling a “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”. Trump is describing this bill as the biggest, boldest bill in American history and claims it will bring jobs back, slash taxes, and put America first again. The President will put forward the bill which is aimed at overhauling taxes, regulation, and trade policy all in one go. The head of the Doge force Elon Musk, put in place by Trump ahead the Election has called the tax bill “a disgusting abomination” and has since stepped down from his role ahead of the announcement. While the full details of the bill are still emerging. Once it’s announced, it’s almost certain that the markets will react and depending on how things pan out, it could have a serious impact on both the U.S. dollar and the stock market which in turn will affect the Pound and Euro just like we are seeing with the unruly tariff saga. Here at A Place in the Sun Currency we have options for you to mitigate your risk against these uncertain times. Get in touch with your currency consultant today for more information on how we can minimise your risk and make your money go further.
Remaining Data This Week
As noted on Monday, it is very quiet in the way of data from the UK but there are still some key data releases from across other major economies to take note of which could have an affect on the markets throughout the rest of the weeks trading. Today the US post ADP employment change at 1.15pm, there are also a couple of speeches from Fed members Bostic and Cook. At 2.45pm Canada announce their interest rate decision which is expected to remain at 2.75%, a press conference will follow half an hour later. Back over to the US at 3pm ISM Service PMI & the FED’s beige book report is at 7pm. Tomorrow, Australia post trade balance in the early hours. In the EU, Germany post factory orders at 7am, at 10am the EU post Producer Price Index, and at 1.15pm staying with the EU the ECB release their monetary policy statement. They will also hold a press conference at 1.45pm. Over to the US at 1.30pm jobless claims, non-farm productivity & unit labour costs. In the afternoon there are also Fed members Kugler, Harker and Schmid also speak. Lastly, on Friday Germany post trade balance & industrial production at 7am. ECB head Christine Lagarde speaks and at 10am the EU post employment change, GDP and retail sales, so we can expect some volatility during Friday morning trading with those releases. Friday afternoon, Canada post average hourly wages and the unemployment rate. Ending the week in the US, Non farm payrolls will be released at 1.30pm.