By Simon Eastman
Last week we saw the pound continue to fare well for those looking to buy that Place in the Sun, with GBPEUR ending up at rates not seen since June 2025, whilst remaining rangebound against the USD, cable finished positively as the session came to a close.
The dollar remains strong as speculation continues around the Fed and the possibility of another rate hike by the end of 2026, following their recent hike last month plus the usual market sentiment towards its safe haven status, given the continued turmoil in the Middle East and the bumblings of President Trump. The slight uptick for the pound was mainly down to a lower than expected Michigan consumer sentiment index reading which came out below the key level of 50 and missed the expected 47.6, reading 46.3 instead. The consumer expectations index also came in lower than 50 at 47.3 with no expectation to counter against.
The week ahead kicks off with a public holiday across the pond, with both the US and Canadian markets closed for Columbus Day and Thanksgiving Day, respectively.
In the meantime, the UK and EU have no data releases of note, but speeches from The Bank of England’s Breeden and Mann, the European Central Banks Vujcic plus the Fed member, Hammack speaking at the International Monetary Fund meeting which is being held all week in Bangkok, Thailand.
Early doors Tuesday we see the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meet at 12.30am BST, for anyone looking to move funds down under in the near term, it’s worth noting you may want to consider securing your trade today.
There is a flurry of central bank member speeches throughout the day at the IMF, whilst actual data releases start at 7am with German inflation figures. US employment change data which comes out after lunch plus home sales figures mid-afternoon. Speeches from BoE member Greene, ECB members Elderson, Escriva, Lane and Fed member Waller.
Wednesday kicks off with speeches from ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England member Pill, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and the ECBs Elderson. Then President Lagarde speaks again, followed by Fed member Bowman who speaks either side of the US CPI inflation release at 1.30pm and the day rounds off with the ECBs Schnabel speaking at 5.15pm.
Hump day done and Thursday’s data releases once again start early with the Australian unemployment rate and other jobs data. At 7am the UK gets its GDP reading plus industrial and manufacturing production figures and trade balance. The US releases PPI inflation figures and retail sales whilst we have an array of central bank speeches from BoE members Pill and Breeden, Fed Chair Warsh and member Hammack and Royal Bank of New Zealand member Breman conclude the day.
The week ends with EU inflation readings and speeches from another flurry of central bankers, starting with the BoE Governor Baily, ECB member Nagel and the BoC Governor Macklem.
Plenty of key data to go off, and a week awash with speeches from the major central banks around the world talking about ways to stabilise exchange rates and ways the IMF can facilitate development in world economies. The very nature of the meeting is likely to have an effect on exchange rates and traders will be paying close attention to the events as they unfold over the week. As such, it would be prudent for clients with a currency requirement not only in the coming days and weeks, but months, to keep in touch with the team here to ensure they make their money go further.