By Ashley Finill
From what had been a promising start for Sterling at the start of October, last week saw the Pound’s steady gains reversed and back under pressure. With losses across the board against most currencies, Sterling lost ground against both the Euro and the US dollar, falling 0.5% against the Euro and just under a percent against the US Dollar. This was due to inflation steadying in the UK as it came out below expectations at 3.8%, which now could point towards a potential interest rate cut from the bank of England at their next meeting On November 6th. In the Early hours of Friday morning, Labour was handed another loss in by-elections in Caerphilly as Plaid Cymru gain a new MP there with Labour finishing 3rd behind Reform UK, which will bring more unwanted pressure for the prime minister Keir Starmer. Caerphilly had been a stronghold for Labour for over 100 years. Lastly, Sterling woes are likely to continue with the uncertainty surrounding the government’s upcoming Budget as Chancellor Rachel Reeves said a couple of weeks ago that they could not rule out tax hikes in the UK.
Data This Week
As we see out the end of the month of October this are still data releases to be aware of although nothing to note from the UK. Today, Germany post Business Climate, Current assessment, and Expectations data. Finishing off the day the US post Durable good orders. Onto Tuesday, Australia post Consumer Price Index at 12.30am. At 8am, Spain post GDP. In the afternoon, The Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate decision, they’re expected to cut from 2.5% to 2.25%. At 2pm, the US post Pending Home Sale. Finishing off the day and a big event as The Fed also announce their interest rate decision, they’re also expected to cut from 4.25% to 4%, a press conference will follow the announcement. On Thursday, France post GDP at 7.45am, at 8am, Spain post Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. At 9am, Germany post unemployment and GDP, Italy also post GDP at 9am. At 10am, the EU post Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, GDP & Unemployment. At 12.30pm, The US post Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, GDP and initial Jobless Claims. At 1pm, Germany post CPI and harmonized index of Consumer Prices. At 1.15pm, the ECB post Main Refinancing operations rate, their monetary policy statement and rate on deposit facility a press conference from the ECB will follow. Finally ending the week on Friday, Aus post PPI at 12.30am, Germany post retail sales at 7am, and France post CPI at 7.45am. At 10am, the EU post Core Harmonized index of consumer prices. At 12.30pm, Canada post GDP. Over to the US and ending the week’s data who post Core personal consumption expenditures at 12.30pm